Bye, Don
Everything you need to know for Friday, Nov. 6: What the heck happened in North Carolina + Donnie’s death rattle
Friday, Nov. 6, 2020
2️⃣ 0️⃣ days until Thanksgiving
3️⃣ 4️⃣ days until Hanukkah
4️⃣ 9️⃣ days until Christmas
5️⃣ 6️⃣ days until this cursed year ends
7️⃣ 5️⃣ days until this cursed presidency is over
Also—and this has gone strangely unremarked—75 days until a Black woman comes an old man’s heartbeat away from the presidency. That’s not nothing.
Today’s Video
For no reason in particular—definitely not to gloat—let’s recall the time (last week) when Donald Trump declared Joe Biden “the worst candidate ever to run in the history of a presidential election. … How the hell do you lose to a guy like this?”
ABOVE THE FOLD
—> Donald’s Death Rattle
Throughout the day yesterday, the reality became more certain: Biden would win Pennsylvania. (He probably did so while I was sleeping.) He’d win Nevada. He’d win Georgia. He’d probably hold on in Arizona.
The math was obvious. Once everything was counted, it wouldn’t even be all that close.
But as absentee ballots from Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly, and Atlanta sealed Trump’s fate, his campaign stoked a dangerous fire, telling MAGAland that there was fraud—no, you can’t see EVIDENCE, stop asking!—not simply Democratic strongholds voting for Democrats.
Enter the lawsuits.
And the angry mobs.
And the disinformation.
And more disinformation.
Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien: “The Democrats are lying, cheating and stealing. It’s happening all over this country.”
And conspiracy theories.
And petulant demands.
And threats.
(Now might not be the best time to go off your meds, Junior.)
And more threats.
And infighting.
And a proposed coup.
And an unhinged, bonkers press conference too crazy for the networks to carry.
Axios suggests the goal is to paint Biden’s presidency as illegitimate, giving “Trump a face-saving way” to explain the loss. Maybe. Or maybe his panic has another motivation.
—> WHAT’S NEXT: Assuming the Supreme Court doesn’t indulge his autocratic fantasies, will Trump’s forthcoming two-month tantrum hurt the GOP in the two hugely important Georgia Senate runoffs?
Democrats will have a 50–48 deficit in the Senate. Mitch McConnell becomes irrelevant if Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock win on Jan. 5. If not, he’ll try to bend Biden to his will.
LOCAL & STATE
—> WTF, NC?
By the time you read this Biden will (probably) have won Pennsylvania, be ahead in Georgia, and be closer to sealing the deal in Nevada and Arizona. But he won’t win North Carolina.
There are, max, about 172,000 ballots left—probably much less.
Biden is losing by 77,000. Cunningham is losing by 97,000. Even if all 172,000 appeared—they won’t—those margins are too much.
But the ballots will matter very much to Cheri Beasley, the SCONC chief justice who currently trails Republican Paul Newby by about 3,700 votes.
—> WHAT HAPPENED? I, like many people much smarter than me, thought Biden would bag North Carolina. He didn’t. Why?
According to the Charlotte Observer:
Republicans credit grassroots organizing that mixed old-fashioned door knocking with sophisticated targeting. …
“We aggressively went after low-propensity voters and tried to make sure we brought those people back in,” [State GOP Chairman Michael Whatley] said Wednesday. …
Whatley said Trump’s rallies—he made nine visits to the state since August—helped pump up enthusiasm among voters in the party’s rural and suburban base.
Democrats didn’t lose because they didn’t turn out. They improved their margins in the five big metros. Even young people turned out. But it wasn’t enough; the rural/exurban counties swung hard right.
Diving into exit polling is a fraught exercise, especially if you want precision. But they can give us at least a preliminary glimpse at the electorate:
First-time voters split 49–50.
Trump won white evangelicals 85–14. He lost everyone else 67–31.
Biden got 66% of city-dwellers. Trump got about 60% of everyone else.
45% said they were better off today than four years ago. They went for Trump 80–17.
Biden won under 30s by 18. Trump won seniors by 17.
Speaking of the kids, meet your new congressman, North Carolina. Here’s his first tweet after declaring victory.
He’s also an accused sexual predator. And Hitler makes his nethers tingly. Nothing but the best and brightest.
Thanks for reading. I’ll see you on Monday, when (please, God, please) all of this will be over and done with.
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