Is Anything Important Happening Today?
Everything you need to know for Tuesday, Nov. 3: Let’s start day-drinking now.
Today is Tuesday, Nov. 3
🚨🚨🚨 THE ELECTION IS TODAY 🚨🚨🚨
Polls are open from 6:30 a.m. to 7:30 p.m. If you are in line at 7:30 p.m., stay there.
Find your polling place here.
You DO NOT need an ID to vote.
Follow me on Twitter tonight for election analysis as the returns come in across North Carolina.
UPDATE FROM YESTERDAY: The SBE says there are about 149,000 outstanding ballots from voters who a) requested one and b) have not returned it and have not voted early.
SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND:
Today’s Number: 322
Electoral votes Joe Biden will receive, according to me.
In yesterday’s PRIMER, I asked for predictions about the election and promised you mine. Here you are.
—> PART I. PREDICTIONS.
Who will win the presidency?
Popular vote: Biden 52.8, Trump 44.7, Other 2.5
Raw votes: Biden 81.84 million, Trump 69.29 million, Other 3.88 million. Total turnout: 155 million.
Electoral College: Biden 322, Trump 216 (see below)
Swing states
Arizona: Biden 50–48
Colorado: Biden 56–44
Florida: Trump 50–49*
Georgia: Biden 49–48*
Iowa: Trump 50–46
Maine 2: Biden 52–48**
Michigan: Biden 52–46*
Minnesota: Biden 53–45
Nebraska 2: Biden 55–44
New Hampshire: Biden 54–44
Nevada: Biden 52–46
North Carolina: Biden 49–47*
Ohio: Trump 50–47
Pennsylvania: Biden 51–47*
Texas: Trump 49–48*
Wisconsin: Biden 53–44*
*Expect lawsuits and/or shenanigans! **Results after ranked-choice voting.
Who will win the US Senate?
Current: R 53, D 47
Projected: Democrats 51, Republicans 48, 1 runoff
Democrats win: Arizona (McSally –> Kelly flip), Georgia (Perdue –> Osoff flip), Maine (Collins –> Gideon flip), North Carolina (Tillis –> Cunningham flip), Michigan, Colorado (Gardner –> Hickenlooper flip)
Republicans win: Alabama (Jones –> Tuberville flip), Iowa, Montana, South Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Alaska, Mississippi, Kentucky
Runoff: Georgia special election in December
Who will win the presidential contest in North Carolina?
Biden 49.3, Trump 47.1
Who will win the US Senate contest in North Carolina?
Cunningham 48.6, Tillis 47.8
Who will win the governor’s race in North Carolina?
Cooper 53.4, Forest 44.3
What will North Carolina’s turnout be?
76% (about 5.6 million voters, meaning about 1 million people will vote tomorrow)
—> PART 2. QUESTIONS
Which non-presidential politician do you most want to lose?
Lindsey Graham. The best comeuppance for Mitch McConnell would be to spend his final years in the Senate watching his caucus get steamrolled.
Same question, but in North Carolina?
The obvious answer is Dan Forest or Thom Tillis. But the Republicans’ lieutenant governor candidate, Mark Robinson, is a deranged, know-nothing bigot, so let’s go with him.
Which non-presidential politician do you most want to see win?
The race gets overlooked because, you know, Mississippi, but Mike Espy has been running well against Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith. He’s a huge underdog—again, Mississippi—but even a close call would go a long way toward showing that a Black candidate can both inspire huge Black turnout while winning over white voters in a racially polarized state.
Alternatively: Doug Jones is almost certainly going to lose in Alabama, which is a shame, both because he’s been as good a senator as you’ll get from Alabama and because Tommy Tuberville is dumber than a box of rocks.
Same question, but in North Carolina?
I’d say Yvonne Holley, if only because she’s running against Mark Robinson. But I’ll go with Jenna Wadsworth and Jessica Holmes.
It’s hard to get a read on Wadsworth’s chances against Steve Troxler, who’s been Ag Commissioner since Christ was a carpenter. But she’s very smart, very enthusiastic, very antagonistic toward the Sons of Confederate Veterans, very pro-cannabis, very proactive on climate change, and she knows a lot about farming policy. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe she’d also be the first LGBTQ member of the Council of State.
Holmes, a Wake County commissioner, would take over a labor department that has been run into the ground by Cherie Berry. If nothing else, she would give workers a voice in this state, which they haven’t had in forever.
Nationally, what will be the biggest surprise on election night?
I don’t know if it counts as a surprise since the polling has been tight lately, but don’t sleep on Texas. Turnout is through the roof, and Biden is crushing it with early voters. Trump will probably win, but if the dam breaks and a Biden victory becomes a Biden landslide, Dems might finally capture their white whale.
What about in North Carolina?
Based on nothing more than a gut feeling, I wouldn’t be shocked in Raleigh’s affordable housing bond fails.
Which local candidate really impressed you?
I don’t think any local campaign has ever contacted me as much as that of Jillian Riley, who is running for Durham County Soil and Water Conservation Board Supervisor. (I voted for her.)
ABOVE THE FOLD
—> It’s Tough to Make Predictions, Especially About the Future
If you’re wondering how freaked out you should be about tonight, I don’t have a good answer for you. My head tells me my predictions ⬆️ underestimate Biden’s margin of victory—that I’m overcompensating because I was confident Trump would lose in 2016, and this thing will turn into a rout. My bedwetting inner skeptic is convinced that, all evidence to the contrary, Trump might just pull another inside straight.
Then again, when I say “all evidence to the contrary,” I mean it. Let’s survey the pros:
Real Clear Politics
National: Biden 50.7–43.9
Electoral College: Biden 319–219
Senate: 50–50
North Carolina: Trump 49.9–47.4
North Carolina Senate: Cunningham 47–44.8
538
Biden is an 89% favorite to win
Projected popular vote: Biden 53.4–45.4
Projected Electoral College: Biden 349–189
Biden is a 65% favorite to win North Carolina
Projected NC vote: Biden 50.6–48.7
Senate: 51–49
Projected NC Senate vote: Cunningham 50.5–47.4
Cunningham is a 68% favorite to win
NYT Upshot
Popular vote: Biden +8
Electoral College (only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more): Biden 291–125
Electoral College (if polling leads translate perfectly to results): Biden 351–187
Electoral College (if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016): Biden 335–203
North Carolina: Biden +2
The Economist
Biden is a 96% favorite to win
Projected Electoral College: 350–188
Projected popular vote: Biden 54.2–45.8
Biden is a 66% favorite to win North Carolina
Projected popular vote in North Carolina: Biden 50.9–49.1
University of Virginia Center for Politics
Projected Electoral College: Biden 321–217
North Carolina leans Biden
Senate: Democrats 50–48 (2 tossups)
NC Senate: Cunningham slightly favored
All that said, we do now favor Biden, narrowly, in two of the key Sun Belt states: Georgia and North Carolina. We have been surprised by the level of Republican concern about Georgia, and Democrats are expressing surprising confidence about North Carolina, a state that has frustrated the party in recent years. Neither place is a certainty for Democrats, but a small bet seems worthwhile on the Tar Heel and Peach states.
The Progress Campaign
Biden has an 89.2% chance of winning
Projected popular vote (percentage): Biden 52.1–44.4
Projected popular vote (raw): Biden 75,115,772, Trump 64,029,602, Other 4,985,829
Projected Electoral College (no tossups): Biden 289 (389)–125 (149)
Biden has a 54.7% chance of winning North Carolina
Projected NC popular vote (percentage): Biden 49.3–47.8
Projected NC popular vote (raw): Biden 2,812,698, Trump 2,723,761, Other 167,319
Projected Senate (no tossups): Democrats 50 (52)–Republicans 45 (46)
Projected NC Senate (percentage): Cunningham 50.4–47.6
Projected NC Senate (raw): Cunningham 2,729,017, Tillis 2,573,587, Other 108,354
Cunningham has a 64.4% chance of winning
This forecast projects only about 145 million national votes and 5.7 million North Carolina votes. The former strikes me as at least 5 million short. Considering that 5.6 million people have already voted in North Carolina, the latter seems unlikely.
Harvard Political Review
Biden has a 99.96% chance of winning, based on 10,000 electoral simulations. (“However, we should still be cautious of this prediction, as there are many fundamental uncertainties in polling and these models.”)
Projected two-party vote (meaning no third-party candidates): Biden 52–48
Projected Electoral College: Biden 340–198
Biden is slightly favored in North Carolina
North Carolina is also a swing state in our model that leans very slightly Democrat now but did go to Donald Trump in 2016. With 15 electoral votes, it has the potential to affect the final outcome and its vote counting policies mean that we may not be able to confirm a result until very late.
Decision Desk HQ
Biden has an 86% chance of winning
Biden has a 56.5% chance of winning North Carolina
Democrats have an 83.7% chance of winning the Senate
Democrats are projected to win 52 Senate seats
Cal Cunningham has a 67.5% chance of winning
The New Statesman
Biden has an 89.7% chance of winning the Electoral College
Projected Electoral College: Biden 338–200
Biden has a 63% chance of winning North Carolina
Projected North Carolina vote: Biden 51–48
Plural Vote
Biden has a 64.1% chance of winning the Electoral College
Projected Electoral College: Biden 308–240
Trump has a 61.1% chance of winning North Carolina
Projected North Carolina vote: Trump 48.4–47.1
This model uses a combination of polls and search trends. It thinks Trump will win Pennsylvania, and Biden will win Florida.
Electoral Polls
Biden has a 95.2% chance of winning the Electoral College
Projected Electoral College: 335–203
Biden has a 59.3% chance of winning North Carolina
Projected NC vote: Biden 48.7–47.1
Assuming a 2016 polling error, Trump has a 79.2% chance of winning North Carolina
JHK Forecasts
Biden has a 90.3% chance of winning the Electoral College
Average projected Electoral College voted: Biden 349.4–188.6
Projected popular vote: Biden 52.6–44.3
Biden has a 68.7% chance of winning North Carolina
Projected NC vote: Biden 50–47.9
Lean Tossup
Biden has a 96.4% chance of winning the Electoral College
Average projected Electoral College vote: Biden 384.3–153.7
Projected popular vote: Biden 54.5–43.5
Biden has an 82.6% chance of winning North Carolina
Projected NC vote: 50.6–46.2
Race to the White House
Biden has a 98.8% chance of winning the Electoral College (at this point, Hillary Clinton would have been a 60% favorite in this model)
Projected Electoral College: Biden 357–181
Biden has a 74.2% chance of winning North Carolina
Democrats have a 71.8% chance of winning the Senate
Average Senate seats won: Democrats 52.7–47.3
Cunningham has a 72.9% chance of winning. He is favored by 3.7 points.
Reed Forecasts
Biden has a 93.5% chance of winning
Projected Electoral College: Biden 357–181
Biden has a 68.7% chance of winning North Carolina
—> WHAT IT MEANS: That got more detailed than I planned, especially since they all pretty much said the same thing.
Biden is a very strong favorite to win.
He should win the popular vote by 5–8 points and the Electoral College by at least 90 votes.
Biden is about a 3–1 favorite in North Carolina.
Democrats are about a 3–1 favorite to win the Senate.
Cal Cunningham is a slight favorite over Thom Tillis.
For Trump to win, he’ll need the polls to be much worse than they were in 2016.
But while President Trump’s surprising victory has imbued him with an aura of political invincibility, the polls today put him in a far bigger predicament than the one he faced heading into Election Day in 2016. The polls show Mr. Biden with a far more significant lead than the one held by Hillary Clinton, and many of the likeliest explanations for the polling misfire do not appear to be in play today.
Of course, it’s possible the polls could be off by even more than they were four years ago. But to win, that’s exactly what Mr. Trump needs. He would need polls to be even worse than they were in the Northern battleground states four years ago. Crucially, he would also need polls to be off to a far greater extent at the national level as well as in the Sun Belt—and those polls have been relatively accurate in recent contests.
—> 5 POINTS: Right now, the national polling averages have Biden up about 8 points. Trump probably needs the polls to be at least 5 points off—in his direction, not the other way—to win the Electoral College.
In 2016, national polls missed by about 2 points. (The state polls in the Midwest were screwy.)
Worth mentioning: No one, not even the Trump campaign, is arguing that the president will win the popular vote. When all is said and done, Trump will almost certainly earn somewhere in the ballpark of 5–10 million fewer votes than Joe Biden, doubling or tripling his deficit against Hillary Clinton. The fact that we’re talking seriously about his “10% chance”—not to mention the fact that the world is focused on the Philly suburbs and Cuban Americans in Miami and no-college whites in the Charlotte exurbs, while ignoring Manhattan and LA and Chicago and Mississippi and Alabama, etc.—knowing that most Americans want him removed from office should be a wake-up call that our anachronistic method of selecting an executive is untenable and needs to be revisited. But it won’t be, because this anachronistic method benefits the Republican Party and, hence, a conservative white power structure that would otherwise be fading into irrelevance.
—> MEANWHILE: This is how Trump is ending the campaign—tweeting about how the Supreme Court’s refusal to block Pennsylvania from counting legal absentee votes will “induce violence in the streets.”
Does this sound like a guy who thinks he’s about to win a decisive victory?
—> PROGRAMMING NOTE: Remember to follow me on Twitter tonight for what will either be incisive analysis or ALL CAPS YELLING, depending on how things shake out. I’ll try to get as much local info in tomorrow’s PRIMER as possible, even if the presidential race isn’t called. And we’ll get back to non-politics stuff as soon as events allow.