Is North Carolina Trump’s Lost Cause?
Everything you need to know for Tuesday, Oct. 20: America’s dueling realities + North Carolina’s vaccine plan + the coming economic crunch + the disastrous COVID response, part infinity
Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2020
14 days until the election.
7 days until the deadline for absentee ballot requests.
11 days until early voting ends (you can register when you vote at EV sites). Find your EV site here.
55 days until Electoral College slates send their votes to Congress.
78 days until Congress counts Electoral College votes.
92 days until the inauguration.
Today’s Numbers: 14, 17, 17, 32, 36
Percentages of Republicans who believe climate change, racial inequality, income inequality, foreign interference in elections, and health care, respectively, are “critical” issues, according to PRRI’s 2020 American Values Survey.
The report, aptly titled “Dueling Realities,” shows a country that is not just extraordinarily polarized but living in separate universes. (UNC profs Marc Hetherington and Jonathan Weiler called this two years ago in their book Prius or Pickup?)
Some points of interest:
White evangelical Protestants (43%), Hispanic Protestants (45%), and other Christians (47%) are the only religious groups among whom a majority does not say that American culture has mostly changed for the better since the 1950s. Solid majorities of white evangelical Protestants and Hispanic Protestants say things have changed for the worse since the 1950s (57% and 55%, respectively), notably lower than these sentiments in 2016 (74% and 61%, respectively). By contrast, majorities of white mainline Protestants (53%), white Catholics (53%), non-Christian religious Americans (55%), Black Protestants (57%), Hispanic Catholics (58%), and religiously unaffiliated Americans (66%) say that American culture and way of life have improved since the 1950s.
White evangelicals in particular stand out from all other religious groups in their issue priorities. They are the only religious group for which the coronavirus pandemic does not rank among their top three issues, as only 35% say the issue is critical. White evangelical Protestants are also the only religious group in which a majority (63%) say abortion is a critical issue, and it registers as their top issue. No other religious group has a majority saying abortion is a critical issue.
When asked to put themselves on a ten-point scale where one end is the statement “I would prefer the U.S. to be made up of people belonging to a wide variety of religions” and the other end is the statement “I would prefer the U.S. to be a nation primarily made up of people who follow the Christian faith,” Americans are likelier to prefer religious diversity, although a significant number are divided. …
There are deep divides along partisan and religious lines in preferences for religious diversity. Only 13% of Republicans, compared to 43% of independents and 53% of Democrats, mostly agree with the first statement. Four in ten (43%) Republicans, compared to 18% of independents and 16% of Democrats, mostly agree with the second statement. …
White evangelical Protestants (7%) and Hispanic Protestants (15%) stand out as the least likely groups to express a preference for religious diversity. White evangelical Protestants are the only group in which a majority (58%) express a preference for a mostly Christian country.
I’m sensing a theme.
ABOVE THE FOLD
—> Will North Carolina End Trump’s Presidency?
Yesterday, I mentioned that Trump’s three roads to 270 electoral votes all required winning North Carolina. With that as background, these two paragraphs from a story about the struggling campaign’s woes jumped out at me:
Internally, the Trump campaign is increasingly worried that the president’s chances of winning North Carolina, a state the team has heavily invested in and views as essential for Trump’s path to victory, has all but evaporated. The campaign had viewed the state as “super safe” as recently as just a few weeks ago, sources told ABC News.
Advisers now fear that, because the state counts and reports both day-of and mail-in votes together on election night, losing North Carolina could be a clear white flag.
A few thoughts:
The public polling hasn’t changed that much in the last few weeks, so unless there has been some big movement in their internals, I’m not sure why North Carolina would be lost now. I’m also not sure why they’d consider a state where Joe Biden was consistently tied “super safe.”
Losing North Carolina would confound Trump’s apparent plan to declare victory based on Election Day returns and contest late-arriving absentee ballots as fraudulent. We count everything at once. If Trump loses here on election night, it’s game over.
Right now, the best pollsters in the business have Biden up about 4 (NYT/Sienna and Monmouth) and even (Emerson) in recent polls. That’s hardly dominant—unless, again, there’s something in the early voting data they don’t like.
The Trump campaign is publicly dismissing what Trump campaign advisers are privately saying.
“The President is going to win North Carolina and we feel very solid about it,” Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh told ABC News, pointing to its grassroots effort on the ground in the state and polling that shows 42% of Democrats in the state prefer voting by mail and “if this is true, and current absentee ballot request trends continue, they are facing a historically low turnout.”
As spin goes, this is thin gruel. Twenty percent of registered voters have already voted. Nearly half are Democrats. There are many things of which I am unsure—including whether Biden will win North Carolina. But I’ll bet real money North Carolina has higher turnout this year than 2016’s 69%.
LOCAL & STATE
—> North Carolina’s Pandemic Bankruptcies
When the pandemic hit and the economy effectively froze, the country put into place a series of measures designed to keep the bottom from falling out: a moratorium on evictions and most foreclosures, vastly expanded unemployment benefits, small business relief programs, a ban on utility shutoffs.
Yet in North Carolina, more than 3,000 people filed for bankruptcy anyway. You’ll no doubt be shocked to learn that a disproportionate number of them were Black.
Filings fell about 30% during the pandemic, but a steady stream of bankruptcies kept coming as COVID-19 raged. Extra unemployment benefits, $1,200 checks sent to most Americans, the Paycheck Protection Program—they helped, but the efforts didn’t move the needle on the deeper issues. A decline in filings, though, suggests these measures eased some of the pressure.
When these assists end, experts worry about a wave of filings. The underlying issues that drive bankruptcies, they say, have gotten worse in the pandemic. …
The cycles of debt that trap people haven’t relented during the pandemic. In fact, with millions more Americans out of work, bankruptcy lawyers agree that the struggles have worsened. When foreclosures, evictions, and other debt collections start again—and some already have—thousands of North Carolinians and hundreds of thousands of Americans will be thrust back into an economic sweatbox.
The federal $600/week unemployment benefits ended in August, and unemployed workers quickly burned through their savings.
Unemployed workers—and the economy at large—were effectively living off the exhaust fumes of the CARES Act heading into the fall, said Peter Ganong, an economist at the University of Chicago who studied the data.
The researchers can’t yet tell what happened to these workers’ finances in September. But the reality is probably grim. If the $600 checks created something of a life preserver for jobless workers—protecting them for a time from Washington’s political dysfunction—that life preserver deflated quickly, Professor Ganong said.
“Perhaps it’s entirely deflated now,” he said.
Nancy Pelosi has set a deadline of, um, today for another stimulus deal. If that doesn’t pan out, North Carolina’s unemployed will have to make do with the extra $50 the General Assembly approved in September. Except, only 10–15% will be eligible.
—> North Carolina’s COVID Vaccination Plan
Whenever the FDA grants approval for a COVID-19 vaccine—maybe by the end of the year, maybe not—North Carolina will have a plan to get it to the masses.
The state has officially submitted its vaccination plan to the federal government – laying out its strategy, and priorities, in the coming roll-out of a Covid-19 drug.
On Friday evening, the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services (NCDHHS) officially submitted its Covid-19 vaccination plan to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). …
According to the report, the state is planning a four-phase roll-out of its efforts, starting with the most critical populations before moving to the general population.
The basics: Start with emergency workers and health care providers, move to people with high risks of exposure or comorbidities, then, as more doses become available, the general public.
You can read the whole thing here.
—> Why Didn’t the Durham Jail Report Darrell Kersey’s Death?
On Sept. 16, Darrell Wayne Kersey, who had spent the previous eight months in the Durham County jail, died of COVID-19, which he’d contracted in the jail. But the Durham Sheriff’s Office never reported it even though the infection originated in its system, Virginia Bridges scoops.
Two days earlier, while Kersey was hospitalized, the DCSO transferred him to state custody.
“As Mr. Kersey had been transferred to State custody and we were no longer providing security at the hospital we were not notified of the death,” wrote David Bowser, spokesperson for the Durham County Sheriff’s Office, in an email. …
The death was counted as the first of two deaths at Central Prison, according to state records. The N.C. Department of Public Safety announced the death, without naming Kersey, in a press release that said a newly committed state prisoner had died after testing positive for COVID-19.
Kersey—who was due to be released on Nov. 5—was supposed to have been transferred in August, but the DCSO couldn’t do it because he was ill and the state had a policy blocking inmate transfers from facilities with ongoing outbreaks. But on Sept. 14, with Kersey in the hospital dying, the DCSO requested a transfer, and the Department of Public Safety granted it.
—> Union Says McClatchy Wants Sacramento Reporters to Get Paid by Click
Some context: McClatchy, of course, owns The News & Observer, The Charlotte Observer, and what’s left of the Herald-Sun, along with 27 other papers. In August, after having sought bankruptcy protection earlier this year, the 163-year-old company was sold to Chatham Assets Management, a New Jersey hedge fund, in a $312 million deal. Its flagship was always the Sacramento Bee.
Which brings us to yesterday, when the Sacramento Bee Guild tweeted this thread:
For our purposes, the salient question is this: If McClatchy indeed wants to pay its Sac Bee reporters by the click, will it soon be imposing a draconian clickbait-or-die model on North Carolina’s papers, too?
From what I hear, not exactly. A few things to keep in mind:
McClatchy’s proposal would include audience metrics as part of employees’ evaluations—maybe 15–20%, I’ve been told. But they wouldn’t be used to directly determine raises or bonuses—i.e., 1 million PVs gets you an extra five grand.
Whether or not that’s a good idea, the N&O and Charlotte Observer already operate on this system. All non-guild McClatchy papers do.
The Sacramento Guild has been in contract negotiations for over a year and is deadlocked with McClatchy over several issues. The guild chose this one to try to rattle the company’s cage.
Long story short: This shouldn’t affect McClatchy’s North Carolina papers.
Lukewarm take: Let he who is without sin cast the first stone—everyone who has run a newsroom in the last decade has paid more attention to Google Analytics than they’d like to admit—but linking PVs to performance evaluations in any circumstance makes me uneasy. Then again, this is the world we live in (see below).
RELATED: Gannett, the country’s largest newspaper chain, began another round of voluntary buyout offers today. It’s unclear how many people are supposed to go.
—> The North Carolina Roundup
The N.C. Court of Appeals ruled that boards of elections can count absentee ballots postmarked by Election Day if they arrive by Nov. 12.
Wake school board challengers say the incumbents have been too slow returning kids to school. Schools will require daily temperature checks and health screenings when they do.
North Carolina will start making its death records electronic; it is one of the last states to do so.
Cary’s Chinese Lantern Festival has become the latest COVID casualty.
Durham semiconductor company CREE sold off its LED business to SMART Global Holdings in a $300 million deal.
Roy Cooper to Joe Biden on Sunday: “I wanted to show my strong support for you. I think we’re gonna all get across the line. I think Cal [Cunningham] is going to get across the line, too. I know that was frustrating. We’ll get it across.”
—> Weather
Mostly cloudy, high of 79.
NATION & WORLD
—> The White House’s Disastrous COVID Response, Part Infinity.
At some point, these stories start to bleed into each other. But they should shock us nonetheless, considering how many people are still dying.
The Washington Post dives into how the White House’s coronavirus response is “increasingly plagued by distrust, infighting, and lethargy, just as experts predict coronavirus cases could surge this winter and deaths could reach 400,000 by year’s end.”
Some key points:
Trump recruited a neuroradiologist named Scott Atlas to join his team based on his Fox News commentary. Atlas thinks masks and social distancing are dumb, herd immunity is good, and keeps telling Trump that the worst is over. He also opposes increased testing.
Trump and his team have come to believe that a vaccine is their only hope. “‘They’ve given up on everything else,’ said a senior administration official involved in the pandemic response. ‘It’s too hard of a slog.’”
This line: “Trump routinely has told his political advisers that a vaccine would be ready by the time he stands for reelection. And he has plotted with his team on a pre-election promotional campaign to try to convince voters a vaccine is safe, approved and ready for mass distribution—even if none of that is true yet.”
NOT HELPING: Yesterday, Trump got on a call with campaign staffers—with reporters listening in—and bashed infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci.
“People are tired of COVID. I have these huge rallies. People are saying whatever. Just leave us alone. They're tired of it. People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots. … Fauci is a disaster. If I listened to him, we’d have 500,000 deaths.”
—> The Gist: 3 Stories to Read Today
The Supreme Court will review Trump’s border wall funding. “The Supreme Court on Monday said it would take up two challenges to President Trump’s immigration initiatives: his diversion of military funds to pay for construction of the southern border wall, and a policy that has required tens of thousands of asylum seekers to remain in Mexico while their claims are processed. … The cases will not be heard until next year, so a change in administrations after next month’s election could alter the legal landscape or even make the court’s consideration unnecessary.”
From 2008 to 2019, more than 7,500 people died in local jails throughout America. Most hadn’t been convicted. “Hill’s is one of 7,571 inmate deaths Reuters documented in an unprecedented examination of mortality in more than 500 U.S. jails from 2008 to 2019. Death rates have soared in those lockups, rising 35% over the decade ending last year. Casualties like Hill are typical: held on minor charges and dying without ever getting their day in court. At least two-thirds of the dead inmates identified by Reuters, 4,998 people, were never convicted of the charges on which they were being held.”
The US has scheduled its first execution of a woman since 1953. “The inmate, Lisa Montgomery of Melvern, Kan., was convicted of kidnapping resulting in death by a jury in federal court in Missouri in 2008. Her death, by lethal injection, is scheduled for Dec. 8 at the Federal Correctional Complex in Terre Haute, Ind. Federal executions have not taken place in nearly 20 years, but Ms. Montgomery’s would be the ninth federal execution since they resumed in July.”
—> Polling Update
National
Biden 51-40 (YouGov)
Biden 52-43 (Morning Consult)
Biden 50-44 (IBD)
Biden 54-42 (USC)
Biden 51-43 (RMG)
Biden 56-38 (PRRI)
Colorado
Senate: Hickenlooper (D) 48-40 (YouGov)
Michigan
President: Biden 51-41 (Mitchell)
Senate: Peters (D, inc.) 49-43 (Mitchell)
Montana
Senate: Daines (R, inc.) 49-47 (RMG)
Pennsylvania
President: Biden 40-45 (Ipsos)
President: Biden 48-47 (Trafalgar)
Virginia
Senate: Warner (D, inc.) 51-44 (Cygnal)
Wisconsin
President: Biden 51-45 (Ipsos)
President: Biden 48-47 (Trafalgar)
—> The Roundup
The world eclipsed 40 million cases of coronavirus on Monday. More than 1.1 million have died. More than 8.1 million (about 20%) cases came from the US; so did nearly 220,000 deaths (also about 20%).
If re-elected, Trump will have $900 million in debt come due during his second term.
The Justice Department says Trump can’t be sued for denying a rape accusation because his denial was an “official” presidential act.
The US indicted six Russian intelligence officers in connection with major worldwide cyberattacks.
I’d almost forgotten sports are still happening. But the Tampa Bay Rays (parent team of the Durham Bulls, so you’re rooting for them) will face the LA Dodgers in the World Series, which will take place in a half-capacity stadium in Texas. Wait, baseball had weird new rules this year, too?
The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Texas has no duty to inform voters that their absentee ballot was rejected over signature-matching issues before the election or give them a chance to fix it. Remarkably, the Fifth Circuit judges decided that preventing an imaginary problem was more important than protecting a constitutional right. No, really, here’s a quote: “Texas’s strong interest in safeguarding the integrity of its elections from voter fraud far outweighs any burden the state’s voting procedures place on the right to vote.”
Socialist Luis Arce appears to have won an outright majority in the first ballot during Bolivia’s election on Sunday.
Pennsylvania has rejected 372,000 mail-in ballot applications. Most were duplicates from voters who had already requested a mail-in ballot during the primary.
Though more than 2 million Floridians have already voted, the state is now pushing to remove ex-felons who owe court debts from voting rolls.
A Florida company has threatened to lay off workers if Trump loses.
With the pandemic under control, China’s economy is surging.
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow!
Thanks, Jeff, for injecting your well-researched and compellingly-written news digest into our mornings. If you ever need a volunteer editor, or any kind of assistance in getting this out, even just another set of eyes, let me know (b_keena@yahoo.com). I’m not implying that anything is lacking in your current effort. I just know it’s a lot of work.