Should Biden Prosecute Trump?
Everything you need to know for Wednesday, Nov. 18: NC’s new COVID code + Our looming eviction crisis + Why struggling counties voted for Trump
Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020
8 days until Thanksgiving
22 days until Hanukkah
37 days until Christmas
43 days until this cursed year ends
63 days until this cursed presidency is over
Today’s Numbers:
17
Percent by which renters’ risk of displacement declines following new construction, according to a new study of San Francisco real estate.
“Affordable housing and endogenously located construction do not affect displacement or gentrification. These findings suggest that increasing the supply of market-rate housing has beneficial spillover effects for incumbent residents, reducing rents and displacement pressures while improving neighborhood quality.”
49, 13
Percentages of Black and white HR professionals, respectively, who believe that discrimination based on race or ethnicity exists in their workplace, according to a new report from the Society for Human Resource Management.
ABOVE THE FOLD
—> Should Biden Prosecute Trump?
On the one hand:
It is in Joe Biden’s interest to put everything about Donald Trump as far in the rearview as possible. That won’t be easy. Trump will be constantly tweeting, constantly yapping on Fox or NewsmaxTV or wherever he can find an audience, maybe running for president again (or pretending to do so). Trump will be forever the victim—the election stolen from him by a crooked Democratic machine—lashing out at everything his successor does, the media covering it because, hell, the entertainment value.
If Biden’s DOJ launches a Trump investigation, it will be all-consuming. The Republicans will say he’s weaponizing the justice system, the way Dems said (accurately) that Trump tried to—no matter the evidence of Trump’s financial crimes, tax fraud, election-law violations, graft, obstruction of justice, and flat-out corruption, along with God knows what else. So it’s hard to blame Biden for not wanting to go down that road.
President-elect Joe Biden has privately told advisers that he doesn't want his presidency to be consumed by investigations of his predecessor, according to five people familiar with the discussions, despite pressure from some Democrats who want inquiries into President Donald Trump, his policies and members of his administration.
Biden has raised concerns that investigations would further divide a country he is trying to unite and risk making every day of his presidency about Trump, said the sources, who spoke on background to offer details of private conversations.
They said he has specifically told advisers that he is wary of federal tax investigations of Trump or of challenging any orders Trump may issue granting immunity to members of his staff before he leaves office. One adviser said Biden has made it clear that he "just wants to move on."
On the other:
One of the biggest mistakes of the Obama presidency was letting the Bush villains off the hook in the name of putting things behind us. We didn’t prosecute torturers or Wall Street execs. Everyone was rehabilitated.
Biden’s dilemma, Jonathan Mahler writes in The New York Times Magazine, is profound:
The stakes of prosecuting Donald Trump may be high; but so are the costs of not prosecuting him, which would send a dangerous message, one that transcends even the presidency, about the country’s commitment to the rule of law. Trump has presented Biden—and America, really—with a very difficult dilemma. “This whole presidency has been about someone who thought he was above the law,” Anne Milgram, the former attorney general of New Jersey, told me. “If he isn’t held accountable for possible crimes, then he literally was above the law.” …
The nation may desire healing. But there is also the matter of justice, and there is no guarantee that what feels right now will look right through the longer lens of history. Ford was widely assailed for pardoning Nixon. But one of his most outspoken critics at the time, Senator Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts, later honored Ford with a Profile in Courage award, explaining that he’d been moved to rethink his views after witnessing the sprawling and protracted investigation into President Clinton by the independent counsel Ken Starr. It may be time to rethink Ford’s decision once more; it’s hard not to wonder if a Trump presidency would have been possible if Nixon had been criminally prosecuted rather than pardoned.
Biden has two outs:
1) He says he wants to reestablish a wall between the White House and the Department of Justice. The attorney general was never meant to be the president’s lawyer, despite how Bill Barr comported himself. So, in theory, if Biden’s DOJ takes up an investigation because the evidence avails itself, Biden could argue he had nothing to do with it. No one would believe him, of course.
2) Biden does not control New York State or the Manhattan district attorney’s office. Again, from the NYT Mag:
Most major financial crimes carry a five-year statute of limitations, so any illegal acts committed since 2015 would be chargeable. Both the New York attorney general, Letitia James—who entered office in 2019 vowing to use “every area of the law” to investigate President Trump—and the Manhattan district attorney, Cyrus R. Vance Jr., operate independently of the federal government, and even if Trump were to successfully engineer a pardon for himself, he would not be immune from state charges.
Vance’s inquiry appears to cover a range of possible white-collar crimes; one of his office’s filings made reference to “potentially widespread and protracted criminal conduct” at the Trump Organization. Tax fraud and insurance fraud have been mentioned explicitly in court documents, but some of the prosecutors and white-collar defense lawyers I spoke with suggested other possibilities, too. Given Trump’s history of doing business with foreign actors with a demonstrated need to conceal the sources of their income, another one might be money laundering. If investigators are able to establish that Trump engaged in a pattern of illegal activity, he could also be indicted under New York’s racketeering statute.
But prosecuting Trump under state law poses challenges of its own. New York’s state courts afford defendants far more protections than the federal courts. There are stricter rules governing evidence that can be presented to a grand jury, and even minor procedural errors can result in indictments being thrown out.
—> THE BOTTOM LINE: I wouldn’t bet the farm on seeing Trump frog-marched anytime soon. And I wouldn’t bet a dime on Biden forcing the issue through a truth commission. From NBC:
"His overarching view is that we need to move the country forward," an adviser said.
—> OKAY, BUT:
LOCAL & STATE
—> Behold Your New COVID Alert System
Problem A: The pandemic is raging yet again—in some places more than others, but really, we’re working on it everywhere.
Problem B: Governor Cooper doesn’t really want to antagonize the ReOpen Crazies again.
Solution (N&O):
Cooper announced a new alert system Tuesday to gauge COVID-19 spread at the county level throughout the state—and to help government officials and residents understand what actions may be needed to slow the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.
The alert system will be tiered into three levels: yellow means significant community spread; orange means substantial community spread; and red means critical community spread.
The state has included recommendations for enforcement for each counties, but especially for orange and red counties. Cooper said it would be up to mayors, city councils and county commissioners in the color-coded counties—as well as business, faith and community leaders—to take action.
The three Triangle counties are orange, which means we’ve had between 100 and 200 cases per 100,000 people within the last 14 days and 8-10% positive tests. There are 10 red counties (over 200 cases per 100,000 people, 10%-plus positive tests), pretty much all rural, 43 orange, and 47 yellow.
The red and orange codes come with “recommendations” that sound a bit like, you know, April: telework, don’t mix between households, avoid settings where people congregate, get takeout, restrict social interactions to essential activities, etc.
Cooper, sighing like your disappointed father: “Right now, these are strong recommendations. However, if our metrics keep moving in the wrong direction, the state could impose additional orders, either at a local or statewide level.”
RELATED: DHHS Secretary Mandy Cohen told the Raleigh Chamber that a dark winter might await us. Sorry to ruin your morning, everyone.
—> Despite Eviction Protections, People Are Still Getting Kicked Out
When the pandemic first took hold, the state and feds put in places moratoriums blocking landlords from putting renters out on the street. On Sept. 4, after earlier state moratoriums expired, the CDC enacted its own, though many renters didn’t know how to apply. On Oct. 30, Cooper issued an executive order requiring landlords to give tenants they’re trying to boot a CDC declaration form. But as a new NC Watchdog Reporting Network story shows, these moratoriums haven’t been universally successful:
From July through September, almost 25,000 eviction cases have been filed statewide according to data from the N.C. Administrative Office of the Courts. Almost 15,000 have been granted.
But that doesn’t tell the whole story. In those same three months of 2019, well before the pandemic hit, when the economy was still strong, the courts logged almost 50,000 initial eviction filings.
That’s not the full story either. As many as 410,000 North Carolina households are way behind on rent and will face eviction in the very near future, according to an analysis prepared for the National Council of State Housing Agencies. North Carolina landlords could file for nearly a quarter-million evictions by January.
Some landlords simply tell a tenant they have to leave, and since tenants know they haven’t paid rent, they go, without knowing what protections are in place. In some cases, landlords leave broken appliances unfixed, or have been unresponsive to tenant complaints to the point that tenants simply leave. …
Jesse McCoy, supervising attorney for the Duke Law Civil Justice Clinic, says many people trying to avoid evictions have regained employment.
“So if they’re working now, they’re able to take care of their rent moving forward,” he said. “What they can’t take care of is their accumulated deficit that came up before they got the job.”
—> WHAT WENT WRONG? It’s pretty simple, really. For the trillions we spent rescuing the economy—in unemployment, in payroll subsidies, in corporate bailouts—we only sent folks a one-time check for $1,200. The federal unemployment bump ended, the payroll subsidies ended, and millions of people were still out of work—with millions more still behind on rent. No more stimulus was forthcoming.
Tl;dr: We should have kept giving people money.
—> NC’s Rural Voters Gave GOP an Edge in 2020—and Throughout the ’20s
Thanks to a decade’s worth of urban migration, Republicans will receive a bonus in congressional and legislative representation, as white, rural votes this year mattered more than urban and suburban votes. And because of that, those Republicans will get to draw new legislative and congressional districts that lock in those advantages for the next decade—at least so far as the courts allow.
The N&O reports:
These population shifts will be incorporated into redistricting for the 2022 elections, providing a sudden boost for urban areas’ political clout. But since Republicans held control of the state legislature in this election, they will again devise the new districts. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper, who won reelection this month, has no veto power over redistricting. …
Preliminary election results show a majority of significantly overpopulated urban districts went Democrat, while a majority of significantly underpopulated rural districts chose Republicans. …
[Jonathan Cervas, a Carnegie Mellon University postdoc who has worked on redistricting] said the rural-urban differences in district size aided Republicans in North Carolina who were already benefiting from gerrymandering.
“It’s not just that they are malapportioned,” Cervas said. “It’s that you still have built-in gerrymandering. The court did not undo the gerrymander that existed. They only slightly undid the gerrymander that existed.”
—> RELATED: Tim Moore told reporters he backs a more “transparent” process for next year’s redistricting, which is hardly a guarantee that the Republicans won’t gerrymander their hearts out. Once you’ve selected your own voters, what does it matter?
—> Newby Ahead by 406 Votes
About 5.4 million voted in the race for chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court. As of yesterday, 406 votes separated challenger Paul Newby from incumbent Cheri Beasley. Beasley has asked for a recount, as you might imagine.
If Newby wins, the GOP will sweep the state’s statewide judicial elections.
—> The North Carolina Roundup
Department of First World Problems: Connecticut man Lawrence Smith paid Hatteras Yachts $2.5 million toward a $10.1 million custom yacht. The coronavirus shutdown put things several months behind schedule. Smith demanded his money back. He has gotten it, so he sued.
One-quarter of Wake middle and high-schoolers failed a remote-learning class.
The local contract research organization PPD—based in Wilmington but with offices in RTP— managed the Moderna COVID vaccine trial.
The Wake County Courthouse is scaling back operations due to a COVID-related staffing shortage. Family court matters and small claims proceedings will be rescheduled.
Jubala is opening its third location in North Hills next year.
—> Weather
Sunny and cold, high of 49.
NATION & WORLD
—> The Lede: Trump Improved in Counties With High Unemployment (Maybe)
It’s an article of faith among students of presidential elections that incumbents running during recessions get punished for bad economies. So do their parties. Think congressional Democrats in 2010 or John McCain in 2008, George H.W. Bush in 1992 or Jimmy Carter in 1980. So you’d assume the economic crash that accompanied the pandemic contributed to Donald Trump’s defeat. Perhaps not:
An NBC News analysis of unemployment and voting data found that the president’s share of the vote held steady or increased in each of the 20 counties with the highest rise in unemployment from September 2019 to September 2020. And his vote share improved by 1 percentage point or more in 70 of the 100 hardest-hit counties.
The data shows the trend was apparent nationwide, from Latino communities in southern Texas and Florida, to counties in California, Connecticut, and even Hawaii, where the unemployment rate reached nearly 24 percent.
—> THEORY: This is the sort of question that demands a regression analysis—that is, filtering out other variables that may be confusing this story. A more sophisticated analysis will render more sophisticated results. But I have one idea that might explain the correlation: Trump won the pandemic messaging war.
Biden preached public health, while Trump demanded normalcy. The latter is appealing, especially if you’ve been struggling to make ends meet, even if you know you’re being gaslit.
In part, this probably explains why Trump improved among minorities (who suffered the most from the recession and feared another lockdown), while Biden improved most among educated whites (who rode it out the easiest).
—> YEAH, BUT: Maybe county-level data—which include both cities and their suburbs—aren’t the best ways to measure these things.
Shot: Biden won places that are thriving, Trump won places that are hurting, says the Washington Post: “The parts of America that have seen strong job, population and economic growth in the past four years voted for Joe Biden, economic researchers found. In contrast, President Trump garnered his highest vote shares in counties that had some of the most sluggish job, population, and economic growth during his term.”
Chaser: Counties that suffered higher unemployment rates voted for Biden, says the New York Times: “The counties won by President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. experienced worse job losses, on average, during the initial wave of pandemic layoffs than the counties where President Trump was strongest in his bid for re-election. … After the worst of the downturn in April, many of the most affected red counties recovered far more swiftly than blue counties did. By September, as unemployment fell nearly everywhere, blue counties were more likely to have higher unemployment rates.”
—> RELATED: Here’s another counterintuitive factoid about the election: The share of the Black vote in Georgia actually fell compared to 2016 (the same story probably holds true in North Carolina). That’s not to say Stacey Abrams’s turnout operation failed. Black turnout was up. White turnout just went up more.
The Black share of the electorate fell to its lowest level since 2006, based on an Upshot analysis of newly published turnout data from the Georgia secretary of state. In an election marked by a big rise in turnout, Black turnout increased, too, but less than that of some other groups. …
The Black share of the electorate appears to have also dropped in North Carolina—another state where voters are asked their race on their voter registration form—based on initial data from counties representing about 10 percent of the state’s electorate.
—> The Brief: 4 Stories to Read Today
Trump is blocking the transition in unprecedented ways. “There are no briefings being given about coronavirus, troop drawdowns in Afghanistan and Iraq, or aggression by China and Iran. No background checks being done for job applicants. No security clearances being conducted for potential Biden staffers. The silence could continue into December, when states must certify their results to Congress, according to several Republicans familiar with the expected plans.”
Fauci wants a uniform approach to COVID. “Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, said on Tuesday that the nation needed ‘a uniform approach’ to the coronavirus pandemic, rather than ‘a disjointed’ state-by-state response—a remark that echoed the views of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. and contrasted sharply with President Trump’s coronavirus strategy. … He also made clear—without overtly saying so—that he believes Mr. Trump should allow the Biden transition team access to federal health officials.”
Rapid COVID testing isn’t all that accurate. “The promise of antigen tests emerged like a miracle this summer. With repeated use, the theory went, these rapid and cheap coronavirus tests would identify highly infectious people while giving healthy Americans a green light to return to offices, schools, and restaurants. … By September, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services had purchased more than 150 million tests for nursing homes and schools, spending more than $760 million. But it soon became clear that antigen testing … posed a new set of problems. Unlike lab-based, molecular PCR tests, which detect snippets of the virus’s genetic material, antigen tests are less sensitive because they can only detect samples with a higher viral load. The tests were prone to more false negatives and false positives.”
New research sheds light on why some COVID patients die while others barely get sick. “In some cases, provocative new research shows, some people—men in particular—succumb because their immune systems are hit by friendly fire. … In an international study in Science, 10 percent of nearly 1,000 COVID patients who developed life-threatening pneumonia had antibodies that disable key immune system proteins called interferons. These antibodies… were not found at all in 663 people with mild or asymptomatic COVID infections. Only four of 1,227 healthy individuals had the autoantibodies.”
—> Et Cetera
The OAN crackpots are telling their viewers that Trump really won 410 electoral voters, according to a secret server found in Germany.
Trump fired the election official whose agency disputed his false claims of election fraud. Of course he did.
Republicans in Wayne County, Michigan—i.e., Detroit—refused to certify the county’s election results. Then, after protests—and a celebratory Trump tweet—they reversed course.
The headline tells the story, really: “Conservatives find home on social media platforms rife with misinformation.”
Dolly Parton helped fund the Moderna COVID vaccine, because there is nothing Dolly Parton can’t do.
The Senate didn’t advance Judy Shelton, Trump’s nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, who wants to return to the gold standard and abolish the Fed.
The 1990s welfare reform pushed by Republicans and signed by President Clinton had “adverse effects on engagement in parent-child activities, children feeling close to their mothers, and mothers knowing their children’s whereabouts, with the effects generally concentrated among boys,” according to a new working paper from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Thanks for reading. See you tomorrow.