The Curious Case of Greensboro’s Defective Black Votes
Everything you need to know for Tuesday, Oct. 6: The continuing adventures of Dan Forest, an idiot + someone gave Trump his phone back + Amy Coney Barrett might not have the votes
Tuesday, Oct. 6, 2020
28 days until the election
3 days until the voter registration deadline (click here to see if you’re registered)
9 days until early voting begins (you can register during early voting, too)
21 days until the deadline for absentee ballot requests
Today’s Number: 5
The election, in five images.
It seems Donald Trump woke up in Walter Reed on Monday morning, got his phone back, realized everyone was dunking on him for Sunday’s motorcade ride, saw the NBC/WSJ poll that had him down 14 (!), and went on a tweet spree. Behold:
But as much as Trump would like to change the subject in the contest’s waning days—law and order, the Second Amendment, the Supreme Court, socialism, Joe Biden’s alleged senility, etc.—the election will likely boil down to three things.
1) 237,000 US deaths projected by Election Day.
2) The recession.
3) Most importantly, most people just don’t like him that much.
So, we have this: a race with noise but little movement.
ABOVE THE FOLD
—> Why Are So Many of Greensboro’s Black Votes Defective?
Through yesterday, the State Board of Elections had accepted nearly 360,000 absentee ballots—notably, fewer than 61,000 of which have come from Republicans. But that’s a subject for another day. Today, let’s dig into the 6,020 ballots that have been rejected, mostly for incomplete witness information.
From the available data, Guilford County has the highest percentage of rejected ballots, at 8.9 percent. Out of 18,400 ballots returned, almost 1,650 have been rejected.
But watch what happens when you control for race.
Statewide, Black voters have the highest rejection rate, at 4.2 percent. In Guilford, though, the Black rejection rate is 16.9 percent—712 of the 2,477 rejected Black votes in North Carolina. (That’s second only to Dare County, where two of 11 Black votes have been rejected.)
Two caveats: 1) Some big counties, including Wake, have not yet reported any rejected ballots. 2) “Rejected” ballots can be cured, so this doesn’t mean these votes won’t count, just that the signature problems need to be fixed.
Even so, about 18 percent of Guilford’s 190,000 Democrats have requested absentee ballots. Given that Blacks are a core Dem constituency, if one in six of Black absentee votes in the state’s third-largest county isn’t being counted, think of the ramifications in a close race. Recall that Governor Cooper only beat Pat McCrory by about 10,000 votes.
What Gives?
It’s not as bad as it seems, Guilford County elections director Charlie Collicutt told The High Point Enterprise. That tally of rejected ballots includes 1,200 that are in limbo.
Last week, after a federal judge tongue-lashed the SBE for its settlement with a voting-rights group, SBE director Karen Brinson Bell put new policies on hold.
“Absentee envelopes with a missing witness signature shall be kept in a secure location and shall not be considered by the county board until further notice,” Bell said.
State election records have shown that a disproportionate number of absentee ballots submitted by Black voters have had incomplete witness information.
“Many voters are casting their ballots by mail for the first time, so some mistakes are expected,” Bell said.
Last night, the Supreme Court sided with Republicans in a South Carolina fight over requiring absentee ballots to have signatures, an indication that it will do the same with North Carolina’s dispute.
LOCAL & STATE
—> Maybe Dan Forest Doesn’t Want to Win
The News & Observer endorsed Roy Cooper on Monday, which is neither surprising nor particularly meaningful. For statewide, polarized races, endorsements only matter when they’re counterintuitive. If the N&O endorses Thom Tillis, for instance, that will get some buzz.
What is surprising is that Dan Forest isn’t even trying.
“Forest, who declined to interview with the Editorial Board, opposes Cooper’s face mask mandate, wants all schools to open for in-person teaching and the state to return to business as usual despite the pandemic.”
Forest also declined to answer a questionnaire for WRAL’s voter guide, saying the questions “don’t reflect reality.” Here are the questions:
If elected, what are your top 3 priorities?
Should all pandemic-related restrictions in North Carolina be lifted before a coronavirus vaccine is widely available? What would be the tipping point to scale them back or rescind them?
How would you handle the economic issues caused by the pandemic?
The pandemic has resulted in added expenses for public schools. Do you support a significant increase in K-12 spending to help districts, and if so, how would you pay for it?
Do you support expanding Medicaid to provide more North Carolinians with health coverage during the pandemic? If not, how do you propose caring for these people?
Do you believe there’s systemic racism in North Carolina? If so, what reforms are needed?
Team Forest’s explanation:
“These questions are written specifically for the Cooper campaign and don’t reflect reality,” Forest spokesman Andrew Dunn said in an email. “They’re not the issues the people of North Carolina really care about.”
What It’s About
Forest is running as a mini-Trump: He diminished COVID and blamed the media for reporting the stupid things he said (and they are LEGION). But like most copycats, it doesn’t sell like the genuine article.
While We’re on the Subject
Public Policy Polling’s new survey is not great for the NCGOP. Not only is Dan Forest toast, but Joe Biden is up 50–46 against Trump and, even after his “sexting” “scandal,” Cal Cunningham is up 48–42 over Tillis.
Oh, and:
RELATED: Maybe Dan Forest can get some love from the Alamance News, which has Galaxy Brain thoughts about Antifa.
—> Weather
Mostly clear, with a high of 77. ☀️☀️☀️
NATION & WORLD
—> Does Amy Coney Barrett Have the Votes?
The almost impressively dumb superspreader party Donald Trump threw to celebrate Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination may end up tanking her confirmation. Not that Republicans won’t move heaven and earth to get her past the finish line. But with three Republicans down, two of whom are on the Judiciary Committee, more in quarantine, and two others committed to voting against Barrett, it’s not as solid as it was two weeks ago.
From The Atlantic:
It’s also possible that more Republican senators will come down with the virus in the next few days; multiple GOP lawmakers are now quarantining after having been exposed to their colleagues or others who are infected. Unlike the House of Representatives, which changed its rules because of the pandemic to allow lawmakers to cast votes remotely, senators must be physically present on the floor to vote. …
The crucial step for Republicans is likely not the hearings but the committee vote, which requires senators to be physically present to achieve a quorum, according to Sarah Binder, an expert on congressional procedure at the Brookings Institution. If Lee and Tillis weren’t there, Democrats could boycott the hearing and block the vote.
What’s at Stake
Monday, the Court’s first day of its new session, offered another reminder of why this seat is so important.
Remember Kim Davis, the Kentucky court clerk who became a right-wing folk hero because she refused to issue marriage licenses to gay people? The Supreme Court declined to take her appeal to block a lawsuit filed against her by couples to whom she would not give marriage licenses.
In itself, no big deal. What is a big deal is that Justices Thomas and Alito wrote a separate concurrence that essentially calls the 2015 decision to legalize gay marriage an error the Court should revisit.
Davis may have been one of the first victims of this Court’s cavalier treatment of religion in its Obergefell decision, but she will not be the last. Due to Obergefell, those with sincerely held religious beliefs concerning marriage will find it increasingly difficult to participate in society without running afoul of Obergefell and its effect on other antidiscrimination laws.
Here’s a more detailed explainer:
On that note, something to know about would-be Justice Barrett:
—> Polling Update
Pennsylvania: Biden 49–42 (Sienna/NYT)
Florida: Biden 47–42 (Sienna/NYT)
Arizona: Biden 49–41 (Sienna/NYT)
Arizona Senate: Kelly (D) 50–39 (Sienna/NYT)
Pennsylvania: Biden 51–44 (YouGov/CBS)
Ohio: Tie 47–47 (YouGov/CBS)
Ohio: Trump 48–44 (Trafalgar, R)
—> The Roundup
Telling people not to be afraid of COVID, Trump—apparently hopped up on steroids—left the hospital. His doctor said he wasn’t out of the woods yet. Trump then posted a video in which he boasted/rambled: “We’re going to be out front. As your leader, I had to do that. I knew there was danger to it, but I had to do it. I stood out front. I led. Nobody that’s a leader would not do what I did. And I know there’s a risk, there’s a danger, but that’s okay. And now I’m better. And maybe I’m immune, I don’t know.” Real talk: This video is going to get people killed.
Political hacks are investigating a Voice of America White House reporter for anti-Trump “bias.”
Pennsylvania Republican Senator Pat Toomey announced that he will not run for reelection or seek the governor’s office in 2022.
The CDC finally admitted that COVID is transmitted through the air, which is something we all knew months ago, right?
Longread(s): The New Yorker has released The Fragile Earth, an anthology of its stories on climate change.