Georgia on Our Minds
Everything you need to know in 9 minutes: The year’s most important election … NC Republicans break from reality … COVID vaccine Phase 1B … Raleigh bar closes, blames Cooper
Tuesday, Jan. 5, 2021
Happy Tuesday, if such a thing is possible.
Weather today: Partly cloudy with a high of 51. … Weather later this week: Snow flurries, maybe. (You probably don’t need to raid the Teeter for bread and milk.)
Today’s Number: 89
Percentage by which North Carolina flu deaths have fallen during the pandemic. (WRAL)
Maybe there’s a lesson to be learned from all of this mask-wearing and remote working.
+TODAY’S TOP 4
1. 2020’s Last Election Is 2021’s Most Important
Georgia voters will pick the state’s two senators today — and decide who controls the U.S. Senate for the next two years.
If both Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff win, the Senate will split 50–50, giving Democrats control thanks to Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote.
If either David Purdue or Kelly Loeffler wins, Mitch McConnell remains Senate leader, dooming Joe Biden’s legislative ambitions.
Polls are tight, tilting slightly in the Dems’ favor, for whatever that’s worth.
What’s going well for Democrats: Early voting and Trump.
More than 3 million people voted early.
More than 118,000 people who didn’t vote in November have voted early, most of them from demographic groups that favor Dems.
Instead of rallying the base, Donald Trump has demonized GOP officials for not stealing the election. That’s led to poor GOP turnout — and compelled the president to fly to Georgia Monday night for a campaign-stop-slash-airing-of-grievances.
What’s going well for Republicans: It’s a runoff.
Historically, Republicans do well in runoffs.
Over 85% of November early voters age 45 and up have cast their ballots. Fewer than 70% of Millennial and Gen Z EVs have.
Maybe Trump’s internecine attacks will demoralize Republicans. Or maybe having his election fraud claims will energize them. The 2018 midterms showed that Trumpism without Trump on the ballot doesn’t work; in a way, Trump is putting himself on the ballot — given how scummy the two rich AF Republican candidates are, that helps the GOP’s chances.
To wit: After Trump’s probably criminal call with Georgia secretary of state Brad Raffensperger, Purdue condemned Raffensperger for recording the call, not Trump for subverting democracy.
—> SUBSCRIBER BONUS: Control of the U.S. Senate is the first of the year’s major political questions to get answered. I’ve compiled a list of 20 more — 21 questions for 2021 — whose answers will define the year we’ll see. PRIMER subscribers can read my take on the first 10 here.
Not a subscriber? Click here.
2. NC Republicans Announce Break from Reality
Congressmen Richard Hudson and David Rouzer have announced that they— like fellow North Carolina Republicans Tedd Budd and Madison Cawthorn — will join the Tinfoil Hat Caucus in objecting to the certification of Joe Biden’s election on Wednesday.
Hudson: “Millions of people do not trust the outcome of this presidential election because there is incontrovertible evidence of voter irregularity — if not outright fraud — in multiple states.” (Hudson also thinks social media was mean to Trump, so the election was unfair.)
Fact check: There is no evidence, let alone“incontrovertible” evidence, of “irregularity” or fraud, and if millions of people don’t trust the results, it’s because people like Hudson have spent the last two months lying about them.
Cawthorn released a video explaining his objection that contained little more than debunked claims and conspiracy theories that collapse with a moment’s scrutiny.
That half the NCGOP congressional delegation dove into this delusional swamp reflects what the party has become under Trump. As the retiring Jim Morrill reported in (what I think was) his last story for the Charlotte Observer and the N&O, the NCGOP’s challenge is to convert Trump voters into Republican voters.
“Like no one before, Trump has left his mark on the Republican Party in North Carolina and across the country. To supporters, he’s been a turnout machine who energized voters by tapping into the economic and cultural issues they care about.”
Former Republican Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr: “Trump has completely co-opted the Republican brand. It’s the Trump brand now. That might have short-term benefits for Republicans, but I think in the long term it’s a negative.”
3. North Carolina Enters Phase 1B of COVID Vax Plan
While Israel is vaccinating people for COVID so quickly it’s running out of vaccines, the U.S.’s rollout has, um, left something to be desired. With the federal government a perpetual shambles, responsibility for who gets vaccinated when has haphazardly filtered down to states and counties.
So North Carolina will move into Phase 1B of its vaccination plan this week — meaning it will be available to those 75 and older in addition to hospital workers and people in long-term facilities — unevenly, with availability dependent on where you live.
Wake County: “Right now, there is not enough vaccine to move to Phase 1b. Wake County is vaccinating those who qualify for Phase 1a with the limited supply available.”
In Wilson County, some seniors can get vaccinated, “but officials told people they had to call and make an appointment to be vaccinated. Phone problems and an overwhelming response snagged that plan on Monday, however.” (WRAL)
Northampton County will begin vaccinating seniors on Wednesday. Gaston County will do so starting Friday.
The 75+ group is just the first part of Phase 1B (Phase 1Ba?), WRAL explains: “The second group in that phase includes health care workers who aren’t treating COVID-19 patients and ‘essential’ workers 50 and older, including first responders, teachers, postal workers, and supermarket employees. The third group in that phase includes essential workers 49 and younger.”
—> STATS: Through Saturday, North Carolina had received about 330,000 vaccine doses, of which 94,865 — 29% — have been administered. (CBS17)
—> MEANWHILE: Durham County is considering a $240,000 plan to test essential employees who work in confined spaces for COVID.
“To increase mass testing, a critical tool to stem the virus’s spread, the board is considering a contract with Gene IQ. If approved, Gene IQ would conduct bi-weekly testing among over 2,000 employees in Durham, identifying coronavirus cases and mass outbreaks among the workforce.” (WRAL)
4. Raleigh Bar Coglin’s Closes, Blames Cooper
The last time I texted with Zack Medford, an owner of Isaac Hunter’s Hospitality and founder of the North Carolina Bar and Tavern Association, he all but said this was inevitable. It was Dec. 10, and Governor Cooper had just announced a 9 p.m. curfew for on-premises alcohol consumption — which, on top of monthslong closures followed by capacity restrictions bars faced during the pandemic, was a death knell.
“The curfew basically kills us,” he told me. “9-11 pm was our only chance to sell anything at all, nobody walks through the doors earlier than that.”
He and his business partners — Brad Bowles and Ben Yannessa — had already sold Isaac Hunter’s Tavern.
Yesterday, IHH announced that Coglin’s Raleigh was closed for good: “In the face of COVID19, Raleigh’s time machine fell victim to insufficient government aid, negligent leadership from elected officials, and inequitable state policies. Out of money and out of hope, the bar was forced to lay off over 25 employees and turn the lights off one final time.”
—> THE COMPLAINT: The state treated restaurants, breweries, and wineries — not to mention churches, sporting events, even strip clubs — differently than bars for no good reason.
“Like most bar owners across North Carolina, Coglin’s owners watched in horror as the debt skyrocketed, the doors remained closed and the staff remained furloughed. Unlike surrounding states, North Carolina’s leadership continued enforcing draconian restrictions on bars without offering real relief.”
The landlord told Coglin’s to pay $100,000 in back rent or get out.
“Coglin’s owners plan to do everything in their power to one day reopen in a new location but in the near future, prospects look bleak. … On top of an uncertain regulatory future, funding construction is expensive enough without facing the massive amount of debt accrued during the pandemic.”
+NEED TO KNOW
—> Local & State
Departing Commerce Secretary Tony Copeland still won’t talk about that Apple deal that didn’t go through two years ago. (N&O)
Terrance Ruth, the executive director of the Justice Love Foundation, a social justice organization, announced that he’ll challenge Mary-Ann Baldwin for Raleigh mayor. He specifically criticized MAB’s decision to disband citizens advisory committees earlier this year. (N&O)
Raleigh’s RedHill Biopharma says that phase 2 of clinical trials for opaganib, an oral drug designed to treat hospitalized COVID-19 patients with pneumonia, was safe and more effective than the placebo. More than 52% of patients no longer required oxygen support after 14 days. (TBJ, sub. req.)
The strict rules attached to the extended federal unemployment benefits could exclude tens of thousands of North Carolina residents out of work because of the pandemic. (N&O)
Triangle banks are gearing up to manage another round of PPP fund distribution — included as part of the recent stimulus — though they don’t expect as much demand. Larry Barbour, CEO of North State Bank: “I don’t expect a large volume of requests. But I think the hospitality and restaurant [segment], there will be a lot of folks … they are really, really struggling.” (TBJ, sub. req.)
ATF agents say a World War II-era grenade sold at a Brunswick County antique mall in June could still explode. They’re trying to track down the new owner. (WRAL)
—> Nation & World
A UK judge has blocked the U.S. government’s extradition request for Wikileaks’ founder Julian Assange, ruling that prosecutors made a successful case for Assange’s extradition, but “the U.S. was incapable of preventing him from attempting to take his own life.” (BBC)
Scotland and Britain went into a full lockdown yesterday. (The Guardian, NYT)
This might shock you, but in-person voting took significantly longer in America’s poorer, less-white neighborhoods. (NYT)
The Trump administration’s burn-it-down-on-the-way-out program continues apace. Yesterday, the EPA finalized a new “transparency” rule that will exclude public health research from policymaking. Experts call it “a bold attempt to get science out of the way so special interests can do what they want.” (WaPo)
The leader of the Proud Boys was arrested in Washington, D.C., while on a phone interview with a USA Today reporter. He was charged with setting fire to a Black Lives Matter banner during a pro-Trump rally in the city last month. A convicted felon, he also allegedly brought two high-capacity firearm magazines to D.C. for Wednesday’s pro-Trump protest, which led to an additional charge. (USA Today)
Postal Service delays and rising prices are threatening the viability of small-town newspapers. (WaPo)
The Florida Supreme Court — perhaps the most radical in the country — has been systematically dismantling safeguards protecting death row inmates. (The Intercept)
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a South Korean vessel for allegedly polluting the Persian Gulf, escalating tensions with the U.S. as Iran began enriching uranium in the waning days of the Trump administration. (WaPo, The Guardian)
The CIA has rebranded as your cousin’s shitty garage band. (Better jokes at the link. Social media had a field day.) (AdAge)
—> Tech & Science
Slack went down on Monday morning, causing (I assume) unimaginable chaos at virtual workplaces all over the country as people returned from holiday breaks. (CNN)
More than 225 Google employers formed a union, following years of demands for changes to pay, ethics, and harassment policies. (NYT)
—> Culture & Entertainment
The pandemic has caused a spike in breakups and divorces. Attorney Carly Kinch: “I don’t think that the reasons that people are divorcing have necessarily changed. You've always had the underlying current of ‘I'm unhappy with this or that at home.’ But I think [the pandemic] has just brought the focus on domestic arrangements really into much more sharp focus than they would ordinarily be.” (BBC)
Larry King is out of the ICU. (Daily Beast)
If you need something to look forward to, AV Club has compiled a list of its most anticipated releases — books, movies, TV, etc. — of the coming year. (AV Club)
Like society at large, pop culture during the Trump era has fragmented. (Politico Magazine)
What did it take until last week for someone to hip me to Babylon Berlin? (Netflix)
+WHAT I’M READING
1. “It’s Time to Consider Delaying the Second Dose of Coronavirus Vaccine”
Until recently, we supported the strict vaccine regimen, requiring two doses within a month. Both the Pfizer and Moderna clinical trials were carried out this way, and the much-touted 95 percent efficacy rates were drawn from those trials.
But as Mike Tyson famously said, “Everybody has a plan until they’ve been punched in the mouth.” When it comes to covid-19, we’re being punched in the mouth over and over again. It’s time to change the plan; namely, we should give people a single vaccination now and defer their second shot until more doses of vaccine become available.
What changed? First, there’s simply a supply constraint. We hoped that additional vaccines would be available by now. But only the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have been authorized, and they’re being produced more slowly than hoped. Even more worrisome are the distribution bottlenecks that are making it difficult to vaccinate people as quickly as possible.
Source: Robert M. Wachter and Ashish K. Jha | Washington Post
2. “CBP Has Expelled Newborn U.S. Citizens With Their Migrant Mothers”
U.S. Customs and Border Protection has used a controversial Centers for Disease Control and Prevention order authorizing the expulsion of asylum-seekers on supposed public health grounds to send multiple U.S.-born infants — who are by law U.S. citizens — and their migrant families across the southern border to Mexico.
In interviews with The Intercept, three asylum-seeking mothers who crossed the border while pregnant described giving birth in U.S. hospitals, only to be swiftly sent back under false pretenses and without an evaluation of their particular humanitarian circumstances or claims of danger. … None immediately received citizenship paperwork for their infants, and they are unsure if and when they’ll be allowed to tender an asylum claim.
“The law does not allow for the rapid expulsion of U.S. citizens,” said Nicole Ramos, director of the Border Rights Project at Al Otro Lado, a legal and social services organization that is investigating the expulsions. Al Otro Lado … said it is aware of a total of eight mothers in this situation, two of whom it’s lost contact with and the rest of whom remain in Mexico.
Source: The Intercept
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